The portal shows three different climate scenarios, so-called Representative Concentration Paths (RCPs). These were developed by the scientific community for the fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The RCP scenarios 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 used in the portal take into account different levels of greenhouse gas-induced radiation drives for the period 2011-2100. The intensity of the future climate protection from 2011 to 2100, which influences the radiation propulsion as well as the greenhouse gas concentration, is decisive for the different temperature increases in each scenario.
The scenario RCP 2.6 (Two degree scenario) shows a possible development that is likely to comply with the global two-degree limit. A requirement for this is strong climate protection.
The setting of the two-degree limit is a political objective, since science assumes that the climate consequences would still be manageable if the temperature were to fall below this level. Further information can be found in the German synthesis report of the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. This document is available as PDF in the menu under climate knowledge.
At the UN climate summit in Paris in December 2015, 195 states adopted a new agreement against global warming. According to this, global warming is to be limited to "well below two degrees" compared with pre-industrial conditions. In addition, efforts are to be made to stabilise the global climate at 1.5 °C. The aim is to reduce global warming to "well below two degrees" compared to pre-industrial conditions.
The RCP 4.5 scenario (Moderate scenario) follows a significantly reduced emission trend and by 2100 achieves a global mean temperature increase of approx. 3° degrees compared with pre-industrial levels.
The RCP 8.5 scenario (Business as usual scenario) corresponds most closely to current emission trends and is therefore known as the business as usual scenario.
It considers a possible climate development with further increasing greenhouse gas emissions without additional climate protection measures. This results in an average global temperature increase of between 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C by 2100 compared to pre-industrial Nineau, if the currently available scenarios of the global climate models are taken as a basis.